2025NEW JERSEY ELECTION ANALYSIS

By ANJRPC Lobbyist Rob Nixon

 
Sherrill Elected Governor; Dems Prevail Over GOP Throughout NJ

New Jersey’s voters have elected Democratic Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill as Governor.  Her victory is historic.  She will become New Jersey’s first female Democratic Governor.  Sherrill’s victory also marks the first time a Democrat has won election following a two term Democrat Governor since Governor Hughes victory in 1961.

She will enter the office in January 2026 with solid majorities in the Legislature.  Time will tell where political realities will take her Administration as her party swings further left on election night around the nation.

Her Republican opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, ran a textbook campaign.  He was constantly on-message on issues that seemed to be resonating with New Jersey residents on affordability, taxes and the direction of the State.  Following his near miss loss against Governor Murphy in 2021 there was enthusiasm around his candidacy that he could drag New Jersey back to being a competitive State for the GOP.

But what voters say before an election and what they do with their ballots are two different things.  Jack’s constant retail campaigning was simply not enough to compete with what the Democrats bring to the table on election day.  While Sherrill ran what has been described even by Democrats as a lackluster campaign, she had the benefit of New Jersey Democrats political infrastructure and independent voters dislike of Donald Trump putting wind in her sails. She also carries with her a tremendous resume that she touts wherever she goes – veteran, pilot, mom.  Voters clearly liked what they saw as she is on pace for a blowout electoral victory when most pundits and polls had the race as tight.

The real winner of the evening may be the Democrat Get Out the Vote operation.  The Democrats early voting operation and their more than 800,000 registered vote advantage are akin to giving them a 20 yard lead in a 100 yard dash.  While Republicans did a far better job turning out early voters this year they simply could not make up the lead the Democrats had going into the election.

This vote banking can’t be understated.  In addition to boosting the Sherrill campaign it very likely protected Democratic Assembly members in Trump leaning counties that Ciattarelli won in 2021.

In addition to their early vote prowess, Democrats also benefited from high turnout in Jersey City from their contests Mayoral race and the GOTV operation in the rest of Democratic Hudson and Essex Counties specifically.  There will be more analysis needed over the next few days and with it plenty of questions about the results will be answered.

Specifically, why did voters who felt the State was heading in the wrong direction continue with the same party to lead it?  How did President Trump impact the race – did voters choose Democrats to protest him; did Trump voters stay home; was there no carry over from minority voters from Trump in 2024 to Ciattarelli in 2025?  Is there any path in the future for a Republican to win Statewide in New Jersey again?  Why did unaffiliated voters seem to swing so heavily Democratic across the Board in 2025?

But for now, we know the 2025 election has yielded a commanding victory for Mike Sherrill, a continuation of Democratic control in the Legislature and a brand-new Administration will be moving into Trenton soon.

Sherrill Coattails Expand Democratic Assembly Majority

The Democratic wave that crashed into New Jersey also swept the Democrats into an even larger majority in the General Assembly.  The Assembly Democratic majority will expand to at least 55 members as they knocked at least 3 Republican incumbents out of their seats.  They may not be done, however, as at least 4 other GOP incumbents were in races too close to call into the early morning.

Republicans actually had high hopes for Ciattarelli to carry their Assembly candidates across the finish line and take out Democratic incumbents in District 3,4 and 8.  Districts 3 and 4 are centered in Counties won by Ciattarelli in 2021 and Trump in 2024.  But Mikie Sherrill and the Democratic machine had coattails the GOP candidate couldn’t match.

Not only did every Democratic incumbent win but the GOP saw incumbent Assemblyman Mike Torrissi in District 8 and Assemblywomen Nancy Munoz and Michelle Matsikoudis in District 21 lose their seats.  What was predicted to be a dogfight for Assembly seats held by Democratic incumbents in District 16, 36 and 38 never materialized.

Regardless of whether the Democrats pull off a win for the four seats too close to call in District 2 and 25 they will hold the largest Assembly majority either party has held since the GOP had 58 seats after the 1991 election.

What Happens Now?

What is clear is that Democrats are in undisputed control of Trenton for the next two years.  With that comes the ease of governing with votes to spare in the Senate and Assembly and a Governor who will be on a mission to deliver on promises made during the campaign.  While it may win votes to run against Donald Trump though New Jersey residents still say high taxes and affordability are their most pressing concerns.  Voters have now provided the Democrats the power and the time to address those issues.

Governor-elect Sherrill will now be tasked with establishing a transition team to focus on her Administration’s priorities.  Sherrill, who has never held a State or local office before becoming Governor, will also need to appoint a senior staff and Cabinet with experience to help her run New Jersey on a day-to-day basis.  She will likely want to be well prepared for her inaugural speech, quickly followed by the February Budget message, to make it clear what her term in office will be all about.

While that is ongoing, the current Legislature will need to finish the legislative session.  The Legislature has been on recess since the end of June and there are likely dozens of bills they want to get on the Governor’s desk before the session ends in January.  The “lame duck” session begins next week and over the next 2 months the Democrats will close out their unfinished business for 2025.

In the end, New Jersey has never been more solidly Democratic than after election day 2025.