The election was predicted to be boring. All the polls pointed to an easy win for Governor Murphy. Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration by nearly 1 million votes. Democrats had resources and incumbency to fall back on. And Democrats believed that Donald Trump had killed the GOP brand in the suburbs and with independent voters. By all accounts, New Jersey is a “Blue State” and following President Biden’s easy win in 2020 the races for Governor, Senate and Assembly was expected to be called quickly on Election Night in favor of the Democrats.
But polls don’t vote. The voters of New Jersey in every region of the State defied the pundits and pollsters with an unexpected red wave that swept Republican candidates into offices Democrats felt were safe and put a scare into a number of incumbents whose seats were never expected to be in play. While many races remain too close to call the morning after the election, Democrats were left stunned as the votes were totaled.
The results were a once in a generation message from voters that they are dissatisfied with the direction of the State. Tuesday night wasn’t as dramatic as the anti-Florio tax revolt of 1991 but the GOP was able to ride a wave so wide that it cost the Democrats unexpected losses in many legislative, county and local government seats. Voters have many reasons for their voting habits and there is plenty in the political environment for voters to be unhappy with this year. Covid fatigue, property taxes, high gas prices, the lack of accomplishments from the Biden Administration and Congress and other issues could have led to blowback on the Murphy Administration and Trenton Democrats.
While the smoke needs to clear a few themes have been exposed, at least for this one election. People are unhappy and they blamed the party in power. Democrats can’t beat the GOP just by invoking the name “Trump”. Suburban and independent voters acted like free agents – willing to back Biden in 2020 but support Republicans in 2021. It was all enough to give the GOP a great night.
But there is one thing to know about New Jersey voters. They don’t need a poll to tell you how they feel. They will let their votes do that for them. Murphy Holds Small Lead but Governor’s Race Too Close To Call Every eye was on Virginia and their Governor’s race. When a question was asked of a Fox News reporter to explain the close race in NJ during their live analysis the answer was a confused “we never studied the New Jersey Governor’s Race”. That is how certain a Murphy re-election was and few outside of the Ciattarelli campaign truly believed there was an upset in the making.
Jack Ciattarelli ran a race like no other GOP candidate has before, including former Governor Christie. This race was not only a contrast in policy but in personality. Ciattarelli was Main Street, Murphy was Wall Street. Ciattarelli grew up locally, Murphy is a carpetbagger. Murphy’s pizza eating style was singled out in jest. Ciattarelli stayed on his campaign messages for months, went to places GOP candidates don’t usually campaign and never got dirty to prove his point.
Governor Murphy on the other hand ran on an agenda of progressive accomplishments that he was truly proud to discuss. He felt assured that his handling of the Covid crisis kept the State from the crushing impact of the virus and public polling supported his approach. He delivered the first full public employee pension payment in nearly 30 years and his Budget surplus lifted the State from its weakened credit rating. He also ran with the advantage of a huge Biden win a year before in New Jersey, a million more Democrats than Republicans and name recognition that his challenger had to work hard to equal.
This year was supposed to break the curse that seems to follow incumbent Democratic Governors in New Jersey. Not since 1977 have voters re-elected an incumbent Democratic Governor even though 3 Republican Governor’s have been elected for two terms in that same period. The stars were aligned for 2021 to be the year the curse was broken and then the polls closed and a new reality set in. But this was not going to be the election any Democrat expected.
Instead of an early victory party, both candidates were forced to call it a night as the day after the election came about with Ciattarelli clinging to a small but stubborn lead yet with a few pockets of votes remaining in both Democratic and unpredictable areas of the State. When morning came, Murphy had reclaimed a small lead on the strength of the Democratic Vote By Mail advantage. The Murphy lead is likely to hold up but the result may fall within the legal requirements for a recount. New Jersey residents may not know who their next Governor will be for a few days after the election.
But the results landed on the political establishment in New Jersey with a thud. And with the Governor’s race going undecided into the night another reality set in that the Democrats were not going to have a clear mandate for a progressive mission with their large majority intact in 2022.
Republicans Pick Up Seats in Legislature Ever since the aftermath of the redistricting of the Senate and General Assembly in 2001 the Republicans have been losing ground in the Legislature. The Democrats went into the election with safe majorities (25-15 in the Senate and 52-28 in the Assembly) based in Districts that most felt would be easy for the incumbents to hold. Only 3 Districts were expected to be battlegrounds and while a few others were on the “wish list” for both parties there were little expectations that the seat totals in both houses would move all that much.
But the red wave that swept across the State swamped Democrats everywhere and helped Republicans gain ground on the Democratic majorities in both houses. It is critical to note, however, that everywhere the GOP picked up seats or held seats in close races, were at one time in recent history or are currently Republican seats or in areas where Donald Trump beat Joe Biden. As such, this could be a sign Republicans and GOP leaning independents simply came home after giving Democrats a chance. In the big picture, despite a GOP celebration the party was not able to break Democratic dominance in vote rich places like Bergen County or battle past the protection the Legislative Map gives to some Democrats.
District 2 (Senate GOP Hold/+2 Assembly GOP Pick Up) The Atlantic County based 2nd District has been a battleground for several election cycles with voters willing to split their ticket or flip from Democrat to Republican and back for over a decade. But the District was a major Democrat target, so much so that the Senate President refused to seat former GOP Assemblyman Vince Polistina when he was selected by the County GOP to fill an unexpired term when Senator Chris Brown stepped down this year. Polistina and his running mates, former GOP Atlantic City Mayor Don Guardian and attorney Claire Swift, ran over their well-funded Democratic challengers regardless. The result will retain the seat in the Senate for the Republicans and cost the Democrats 2 seats in the Assembly. The fall of this domino was the first sign that the South Jersey Democratic machine was not having a good night.
District 3 (Possible GOP Senate Pick Up/+2 Assembly GOP Pick Up) Some races are surprising and some others are so shocking that the numbers don’t make any sense. The 3rd District – home to Senate President Steve Sweeney and his Assembly mates John Burzichelli and Adam Taliaferro – hasn’t been in the hands of the Republicans since 2001. The Assembly seats appear gone however to the GOP candidates, Beth Sawyer and Bethanne McCarty Patrick. It was a loss absolutely no one saw coming.
But the bigger news is that Senate President Sweeney, the longest serving leader in Senate history and one of the most influential Democrats in the past 20 years, is running behind in his race for reelection to Ed Durr. Sweeney had every possible resource to his name while Durr barely campaigned. Sweeney’s potential loss – and the race remains undecided - not only signals that his District was leaning more conservative (Trump did well in the 3rd) but it is the biggest proof that 2021 was a message election from voters upset about the environment in government today.
The possible loss of Sweeney as Senate leader would rearrange the Senate leadership deck and the idea has sent Democrats scrambling to potentially pick a new Senate boss.
District 8 (Senate GOP Pick Up/Assembly GOP Hold) If there was a District that South Jersey Democrats had hoped to send a message of their strength it was in the Burlington County based 8th District. The 8th was on pace to be the costliest race of the year with Democratic leaning super PAC’s financing months of ads on Philly based TV. State Senator Dawn Addiego had flipped parties to become a Democrat. But the 8th is formerly a safe GOP District historically and the two Assembly seats were already in Republican hands. In the days leading up to the election Democrats felt comfortable they would sweep the District as a show that Burlington County has further slipped away from the GOP’s reach.
Voters did not agree with that assessment. Addiego has gone down to Republican Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield while the 2 Assembly seats will remain in GOP hands with the election of Mike Torrissi and Brandon Umba. District 11 (Potential Senate GOP Pick Up/+2 Assembly GOP Pick Up) The 11th District had been considered a “Leans Republican” District since its creation in 2011 until Democrats Joann Downey and Eric Houghtaling stunned 2 incumbent Assembly Republicans in 2015. That was followed by Vin Gopal becoming Senator in 2017. Gopal shot to the top of Senate leadership as a thoughtful legislator and keen political thinker. But the Republicans felt there was potential to target the 11th to reclaim what they had lost previously.
As the dust settles it appears likely the GOP has done just that. Republicans Marilyn Piperno and Kim Eulner have easily won the 2 Assembly seats. Senator Gopal trails his GOP opponent Lori Annetta by close to 500 votes the day after the election. The loss of Gopal would stun the political establishment. But the GOP turnout in Monmouth County was overwhelming for Jack Ciattarelli at the top of the ticket (a GOP plurality of nearly 49,000 votes) and it appears the wave swamped the Dem incumbents. The Gopal race may not be settled for days however.
District 16 (Senate GOP Hold/+2 Assembly GOP Pick Up) The 16th District was yet another Democrat target. The District’s demographics have been pushing Democrat for a decade and it was widely believed this election would finally take the Senate seat from the GOP who have held the spot for decades. The retirement of Senator Kip Bateman opened up a spot for Democratic Assemblyman Andrew Zwicker to run for the open seat. The Democrats already held the District’s two Assembly seats and a Dem sweep was predicted.
But the 16th is made up in large part of Ciattarelli’s home county of Somerset and the GOP candidate for Governor had represented the 16th District. This was therefore going to come down to turnout for both sides. The Republicans appear to have turned out enough from the Somerset and Hunterdon County portion of the District to have held the Senate seat and won back both Assembly seats. GOP Assembly candidates Vincent Panico and Joe Lukac hold a solid lead over Democrat Assemblyman Roy Freiman and his running mate Sadaf Jaffer.
The District also featured the return to politics of former GOP Congressman Mike Pappas who appears in strong position to defeat Zwicker and keep the Senate seat Republican.
District 21 (Senate and Assembly GOP Hold) The Democrats had their own “wish list” District outside of their targeted races in 2,8 and 16 and the 21st District was on it. The District is a reflection of the growing strength of Democrats in New Jersey’s northern suburbs. What was once safe GOP territory had shown potential to move away from the party once and for all. The Senate seat was being vacated by Senate Republican leader Tom Kean and his running mate Jon Bramnick stepped up to hold the seat. His long time GOP running mate Nancy Munoz would be joined on the ticket by Michele Matsikoudis.
If there were to be a sign the GOP was in trouble it would be in the 21st. But the GOP had a team of good candidates with positive name recognition who simply beat political trends. Bramnick, Munoz and Matsikoudis easily maintained the seats for the Republican ticket.
Plenty of Legislative Close Calls Election night was also uncomfortable for several other Democratic incumbents who appear to have survived to be reelected.
In District 4, the same Gloucester County trends that appear to have ensnared Senate President Sweeney and his running mates sent a jolt into the Democratic team of Senator Fred Madden, Assemblyman Paul Moriarty and Assemblywoman Gabby Mosquera who have held their seats by just a few thousand votes.
A different version of District 14 had been in GOP hands throughout the 1990’s and had been a split District in the early 2000’s. But Democrats had expanded their power since and the District was placed in the “Safe D” category. So no one expected an election result with veteran Democratic Senator Linda Greenstein clinging to a lead of under 200 votes against Republican Adam Elias.
Democrats rarely give a second thought to the Bergen and Passaic based 36th District but voters there gave the incumbents, Senator Paul Sarlo, Assemblyman Gary Schaer and Assemblyman Clinton Calabrese a victory that was not the blowout they planned.
Also in Bergen County, the 38th District had once been a battleground, in theory. Resting in an area of the State that at one time elected Republicans to the Legislature it is another example of the Democrats solid command of votes outside of New York City. But until the Vote By Mail numbers were released late into the night, it appeared Democratic Senator Joe Lagana and his running mates Assemblyman Chris Tully and Assemblywoman Lisa Swain were in danger of losing. However, Democratic strength in using Vote By Mail and early voting saved the day for the party in the 38th.
GOP Wins Extend To Local Level The Ciattarelli campaign and the movement of voters toward the GOP had coattails down through County and Local races. Votes continue to trickle in that could impact the County results in Bergen and Passaic Counties.
Republicans have won the County Sheriff’s Office and 2 County Commissioner seats in a sweep over the incumbent Democrats in Gloucester County.
The Republicans also appear to have run the table in Atlantic County by taking the Clerk’s Office from the Democrats and winning all of the County Commissioner seats up this year.
In Cumberland County, Republicans knocked out 2 Democratic County Commissioners.
And in another result that will surely upset Democrats, the Somerset County GOP has reclaimed two of the Commissioner seats they have lost over the last few election on the strength of Ciattarelli’s home county win.
What Happens Now? Traditionally in the days following a Legislative election, the Republican and Democratic caucuses in both houses meet to elect their leadership team for the next session and the Lame Duck legislative session begins. But the GOP pickup of 8 Assembly seats and the potential loss by the Senate President and, at a minimum, by a few of his Senate allies have temporarily scrambled those leadership elections.
Since those battles are internal discussions that center on personal and political relationships it would be improper to speculate on whether the elections will result in any leadership changes or challenges that the Dems and GOP had previously announced prior to Election Day. It is also unclear whether the obvious voter dissatisfaction that led to the GOP resurgence will impact the Governor’s plans for Lame Duck.
Murphy had announced his hopes for an active Lame Duck session and issues like Reproductive Rights, more gun control and other Democratic priorities were potentially on the table. The question will be what takeaways the Democratic Majorities in the Senate and Assembly come away with from last night and whether it makes them reconsider some of their agenda. On the other hand, the number of outgoing Democrats could make passing the Governor’s agenda all the easier and with less consequences politically.
However, looming not so far into the future is the upcoming Redistricting of Legislative Districts. The process to redesign legislative districts is underway and over the past 20 years the maps have protected Democratic majorities while the State has turned more reliably to their party. Some Districts will need to change because of population changes regardless.
Whether this helps or imperils any of the newly elected incumbents is open to question as the process develops. The sensitivity of the Democrats holding smaller majorities in both Houses (possibly 22-18 in the Senate and 44-36 in the Assembly) may moderate some of Governor Murphy’s second term plan if he pulls out a victory. It would also make a future Governor Ciattarelli a potent dealmaker to move his agenda along, especially if the midterm Congressional elections in 2022 continue to favor the GOP like Election Day 2021 did and Dems feel the need to protect their right flank.
What is certain is that the 2021 Election was a once in a generation eruption of voter frustration and it proves that Blue and Red are just colors when voters decide they want to send a message to the party in power. New Jersey politics may have changed for the night but how they may have changed for the future will takes months to uncover.
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