| As a coastal State New Jersey residents know a thing or two about waves. Sit on any given beach and you can watch the breakers come and go. Some waves crest early, some waves break late and some appear big but then simply fade away. The tides, the wind and the ground underwater have a lot to do with waves and all we can do is sit and watch waves do what they do. The 2022 election was supposed to be a “Red Wave” election. Some were even predicting a “tsunami” level event that would wipe Democrats out of power in DC and in local races across the State. The poor economy, the unpopularity of the President and the history of midterm elections all led pundits to declare for weeks that the GOP was on the verge of a potentially historic election that could reclaim the House and Senate for their party. But on the morning after the election that wave did not materialize. As this goes to print, there are numerous races across the nation that remain too close to call or where late arriving votes have not been counted. The GOP is still likely to win control of the House and, if everything swings their way, take a 1 seat majority in the Senate. But that isn’t the result the Republicans dreamed of and it means divided government is a near certainty in DC. It would be overly simplistic, however, to simply say the GOP failed and the Democrats succeeded. Like all waves there is a lot more at play than meets the eye. Candidate selection, redistricting and personality all played a major role in who won or lost. And it will take weeks to strip away the noise to determine what factors mattered most in individual races. The news was in no way terrible for Republicans nationally though the lack of the predicted tsunami will make it seem like they had terrible night. There were some bright spots for the GOP in New Jersey. Florida Republicans absolutely decimated the Democrats from top to bottom. Even New York will deliver a number of GOP upsets in what few before the election believed was possible. But it is best not to judge a wave until it has crested. New Jersey Congress Kean Defeats Malinowski For a GOP Pickup Tom Kean, Jr. has defeated Democratic incumbent Congressman Tom Malinowski in a rematch of their 2020 race. Kean’s lead after election day was nearly 14,000 votes. This was a race widely predicted to favor Kean after it was redistricted to make it more GOP friendly. Kean will be the only candidate in a New Jersey Congressional race to knock off an incumbent and if the House GOP majority comes to fruition they can look to the suburban New York District as a major success in an otherwise frustrating election. Kean will also build on his family legacy of service in Congress that includes his grandfather. Kim Holds Off Healey Congressman Andy Kim has won re-election against Viking Yacht CEO Bob Healey. Kim was the recipient of a friendlier District after redistricting replaced heavily GOP Ocean County with Democratic leaning towns in Mercer County. Healey made Kim work hard for the win in a District designed to reelect Kim. Gottheimer, Sherrill Cruise Congressman Josh Gottheimer and Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill easily won re-election to Congress. Gottheimer has established himself as a leading moderate and bi-partisan voice in the House who is willing to stand up to solve issues that brings both parties together. As a result he was not only capable of building a massive campaign war chest but could keep himself above the fray in a bitterly partisan DC. Sherrill has established herself as immovable in the revised 11th District with a massive margin of victory. Sherrill potentially could use this success as a springboard to consider a run for Governor in 2025. But absent a crisis she will be a lock in the District for as long as she wants to be. Menenedez, Jr. Wins There was little question that Robert Menendez, Jr., son of U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, would romp in the impenetrable Democratic 8th District. He will join Congressman Donald Payne, Jr. as the sons of former Members of Congress to follow their fathers into elected national office in the current Delegation. Other House Incumbents Have No Issues As expected there were no roadblocks for the remaining House incumbents as Congressmen Norcross, Van Drew, Smith, Pallone, Pascrell, Payne and Congresswoman Watson Coleman easily were re-elected. Legislative Incumbents Have No Troubles While most of the State was focused on the races for Congress, there were still two special elections for the New Jersey Legislature to be decided. Neither race was expected to be competitive and the results do not impact the balance of power in Trenton. In the 28th District, State Senator Renee Burgess was elected to finish the term of retired Senator Ron Rice. This is a safe Democratic District. In the 12th District, Assemblyman Alex Sauickie easily defeated a challenge to secure the remainder of the term left open following the passing of longtime Assemblyman Ron Dancer. This is a safe Republican District. Democrats Reset After 2021 At The Local Level New Jersey is widely regarded as a “Blue State” but it would be oversimplistic to suggest that it is simply a wall of Democrats from top to bottom. After the 2021 election in which the GOP shocked State Democrats from the top of the ticket down, Democrats at the County level had something to prove. With the exception of Cumberland County, where the GOP won the majority last night on the Board of County Commissioners, Democrats were able to regain their footing from 2021 by holding onto their Commissioner seats in Passaic, Somerset and Gloucester counties. Republicans last year won Commissioner races in Passaic and Gloucester and nearly took a seat in Somerset. The Dem wins here are good news for them that the races could not be “nationalized” and that they still are in the driver’s seat going into the 2023 Legislative elections in potentially competitive districts centered on these counties. But Democrats were unable to make inroads in GOP areas themselves in places like Monmouth and Atlantic County. 2022 Takeaway It is still too soon to make final determinations about what this election means especially while votes are still being counted and the balance of power in DC remains in question. However, several themes are developing as the dust clears. Redistricting Long standing assumptions about what happens to the party of the President in a midterm election may need to be reset in consideration of what redistricting has done to the competitive nature of Congressional seats. Underneath all the talk of waves and historical results sits the reality that most Congressional seats are gerrymandered to make them safer for one party or the other. Every State has its exceptions. NY State tried to gerrymander safe Dem seats only to have the map thrown out for a more competitive map where Democrats poor standing on the economy and crime did likely cost them a few Congressional seats. Some otherwise “safe” incumbents from both parties will lose this year too in other States. All politics is local and candidate behavior, personality and messages do still matter. But in places like Florida, redistricting has certainly made their House Congressional Delegation more Republican. The same could be said for the Democrats in Illinois where GOP members were squeezed out of their old Districts. New Jersey Congressional Districts were drawn to protect the incumbents, with the exception of the seat Tom Kean is winning. Historically, House incumbents would win re-election more than 90% of the time. But this is a different political environment. A serious question can be raised as to whether creating an overwhelming number of safe seats reduces opportunities for bipartisan cooperation and thereby drives decisions to appeal exclusively to the party base so that surviving a primary election becomes the objective rather than winning to govern. Candidates Matter If the GOP fails to take control of the U.S. Senate there will be a nationwide debate as to whether different candidates could have led to different results. Donald Trump had substantial influence in the primary elections for the GOP in State’s like Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona and Georgia. An argument can be made that non-Trump aligned or more “establishment” candidates would have performed better this year, especially in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. The GOP may still win the Senate when all is said and done with Trump backed candidates in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona but the question will be whether these races should have been close at all. Georgia is a perfect example. Republican Governor Kemp, who President Trump attacked repeatedly, won re-election easily enough to avoid a runoff. However, the Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker ran 5 points behind Governor Kemp in his bid to take out Democratic Senator Warnock. This race will be decided in a December runoff election that Walker still may win but it is fair to question whether Walker was a flawed candidate who, like Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, was interesting more for their celebrity status than their suitability for the office. Divided Government The next two years are going to be among the most tense and unproductive in recent history. A potential GOP House majority will be slim and the U.S. Senate will either remain tied or in the control of one party by a single vote. The Senate will not be able to move legislative due to its filibuster rules no matter what and the House GOP will need to decide if it wants to legislate or attack the President. And the next two years are going to be dominated by talk about the 2024 Presidential election. Every decision by President Biden will be dissected for hints as to his re-election choices. The GOP will be forced to react to a potential Trump candidacy while waiting on its up and comer bench of candidates starting with Governor Ron DeSantis to decide on their future. It is fairly clear that gridlock is the likely result of this election. | 
